The housing market should stabilise in 2011, but no meaningful recovery is likely before 2014, according to economist Dr. John McCartney.

Based on his premise that natural cycles underpin all commercial and residential property markets, McCartney told an audience of prominent business leaders in Waterford how these past market cycles provide the clearest foresight into what is likely to happen in the Irish property market over the next decade. "Research on property markets across the world shows that they work in cycles. By definition, that means that Ireland will ultimately come out of this property led slump," he said. However, due to the severe economy recession, the recovery will be slow," he continued.

However, he said that Ireland's property market's recovery is not imminent: "As regards commercial property, a recovery is likely from around 2014, with the market building to its next peak in 2019," he explained.

Last year, McCartney broke new ground by publishing in the ESRI Quarterly Economic Commentary.