A leading economist with the Central Statistics Office has said stability will return to the domestic property market by 2011, though ‘meaningful recovery’ will not materialise for another three years. Dr. John McCartney presented his thoughts on the recovery of the Irish property market in light of the publicity surrounding NAMA to a selection of business leaders in Waterford. Speaking to an audience that included the City Manager, Michael Walsh, Chamber CEO Michael Garland and Enterprise Board Assistant CEO Ciaran Cullen, amongst others, Dr McCartney said natural cycles underpin all commercial and residential property markets. A detailed analysis of these past market cycles provides us with the clearest foresight into what is likely to happen in the Irish property market over the next ten years. “Research on property markets across the world shows that they work in cycles. By definition, that means that Ireland will ultimately come out of this property led slump. However, the economy has been through a very severe recession and it is impossible to bounce back from this type of event overnight,” he said. However, he said that while Ireland’s property market will recover, this recovery is not imminent. “The housing market should stabilise in 2011, but no meaningful recovery is likely before 2014. As regards commercial property, a recovery is likely from around 2014, with the market building to its next peak in 2019,” he said. Jonathan Earl of B2B Communications, which organised the event, said Dr McCartney’s presentation generated great debate and deliberation from guests. “There is a lot of speculation about the economy, its chances of recovery and the economic challenges we all face. Although Dr. McCartney focused primarily on the property market, it outlined a reasonable timeframe within which we can expect a return to 'normality'.” In December 2008, John McCartney broke new ground by publishing in the ESRI Quarterly Economic Commentary the first ever analysis of what drives commercial building in Ireland. He continues to undertake urgently needed research into the commercial property market, and has developed forecasting models for rental growth and construction output. |
