The Labour Party Government is proving to be exceptionally unpopular and lost out heavily to the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in the local elections and to candidates aligned to euro-sceptic parties in the European elections.

Brown is coming under increasing pressure to resign, while a number of MPs have resigned following discovery of irregularities in their expense claims. All of this should sound fairly familiar to Brian Cowen.

Property sales
However, Gordon Brown may have more reasons to be cheerful than the Taoiseach regarding the economic outlook and, in particular, the outlook for the residential property market.

Rightmove (a property sales website) recorded a 2.4% increase in prices in May. The Nationwide index of house prices rose in May, while Hometrack reported that prices were unchanged. Is this the beginning of the end to the downturn in the UK property market? While these indicators are encouraging, it probably is a little too early to herald a recovery as other indices of prices suggest that the rate of decline had only eased.

But there may be some momentum gaining track in relation to sales. The May edition of the RICS survey of the UK housing market registered an increase in new buyer enquiries for the seventh consecutive month and it is now at its highest level since August 1999.

It would also appear that viewings are starting to translate into transactions and as a result the stock of properties on surveyor's books is falling - the sales/stock ratio is now at its highest level since April 2008. The results of this survey follow on from what appears to be a relatively strong spring selling season in the UK. Critically, estate agents are becoming more optimistic about the outlook for the market in respect of both prices and sales.

Recovery
Mortgage availability, however, remains the limiting factor in terms of transaction levels. While mortgage approvals rose for the third consecutive month in April and are now at their highest level in a year, they still remain some 60% lower than pre-correction levels and only half the levels which historically have been consistent with stable prices.

There are a number of parallels here between the UK and Irish residential markets. In order for transaction activity to improve, both require an improvement in the availability of mortgage credit and labour market prospects. Unfortunately, neither of these are likely to occur until well into next year.

Yet, the UK market is not suffering from as big an overhang of unsold properties as being experienced in Ireland and, therefore, the UK residential market is likely to recover much more quickly than in Ireland.

But even if this happens before the next general election in the UK (any time in the next twelve months?) it is unlikely to rescue Gordon Brown and the Labour Party from another poor showing at the polls. Gordon better enjoy his time at the European Council meeting in Brussels this month - it could be his last.

This article was written exclusively for irishconstruction.com by Independent economic research consultant Geoff Tucker BA MA